消費者物価指数（CPI: Consumer Price Index）

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Table of Contents

  1. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?
  2. Market Impact
  3. Notes
  4. Release Times (Daylight Saving / Standard Time)
  5. Summary

1. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)?

Overview

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key economic indicator that measures price changes over a given period. It is calculated from the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers (food, energy, healthcare, housing, etc.) and is used to track inflation trends.

There are two main types of CPI:

  • Headline CPI: Includes all items.
  • Core CPI: Excludes food and energy prices.

The Federal Reserve (FRB) tends to place particular emphasis on Core CPI because food and energy are highly volatile and their short-term swings can distort the broader inflation picture.

2. Market Impact

CPI is a primary gauge of inflation and has a major influence on Federal Reserve policy. When inflation is high, the odds of a rate hike rise; when inflation is low, the odds of a rate cut increase.

Main Effects

  • CPI above expectations (accelerating inflation) → Markets may price in more Fed tightening: potential for stronger USD, lower equities, higher yields.
  • CPI below expectations (cooling inflation) → Markets may price in easing: potential for weaker USD, higher equities, lower yields.

Reactions tend to be larger when the Fed is focused on curbing inflation.

3. Notes

  1. Understand the difference between Headline and Core CPI
    • Headline CPI reflects energy and food swings and can move sharply on temporary factors.
    • Core CPI often has greater bearing on Fed policy decisions.
  2. Check alignment with Fed policy
    • If CPI runs above the Fed’s goal (typically around 2%), the likelihood of hikes increases.
    • If inflation falls too low, rate-cut discussions may advance to support growth.
  3. Compare with other inflation gauges
    • PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index) is also important. The Fed places more weight on PCE, but CPI still moves markets significantly.

4. Release Times (Daylight Saving / Standard Time)

CPI is released mid-month (typically in the second week) each month.

Period Release Time (U.S. Eastern Time) Japan Time (JST)
Daylight Saving Time (Mar–Nov) 8:30 a.m. 9:30 p.m.
Standard Time (Nov–Mar) 8:30 a.m. 10:30 p.m.

*When the U.S. observes Daylight Saving Time, the Japan release time is one hour earlier.

5. Summary

  • CPI is a key inflation gauge and directly influences Fed policy.
  • Know the difference between Headline and Core CPI; Core is especially important for policy assessment.
  • Above-forecast CPI tends to mean a stronger USD and higher yields; below-forecast CPI tends to mean a weaker USD and lower yields.
  • Released mid-month at 8:30 a.m. ET; 9:30 p.m. JST (DST) or 10:30 p.m. JST (Standard Time).
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